Just two months in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while his coach admonished him for missing a through-ball. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his performances were a sign or the reason for the side's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. After Rogers swept in his second strike to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their opening six fixtures, now sit just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to answer. History, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, while the positive results have stacked up.
According to the data, on just two occasions has the team had an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a club that have just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach looks like to trade blows with the opposition and wait for their talisman to rescue them with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again against Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, arced right inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents had more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is a different scenario where, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
- The attacking talent might become the performer he was during his peak.
- The defensive duo are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like an essential player for the national team.
This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the hero positioned himself before the North End after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
